When will world population peak?

UN's medium-variant projection has the world's population peaking around 2084 at approximately 10.29B, then slowly declining. This would be the first sustained decline in modern human history.

Population Projection by Country 2025–2100

Q: What will the world population be in 2100?

UN WPP 2024 medium-variant projection: approximately 10.18B in 2100 — only slightly higher than the projected peak. The low variant gives ~7.1 billion, the high variant ~14.4 billion. The medium variant has world population peaking near 10.29B around 2084 before slow decline.

Q: Which countries are growing fastest?

Among countries with more than 1 million people today, Democratic Republic of the Congo is projected to grow fastest by 2050 (about +93%). The 10 fastest-growing countries are essentially all in Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by still-high fertility rates and a young base population.

Q: Which countries are shrinking fastest?

Bosnia and Herzegovina tops the list, projected to lose about 22% of its population by 2050. East Asia (China, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan) and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania) dominate the list. Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Cuba are notable Western and Latin American entrants.

Q: How accurate are UN population projections?

Short-term projections (10-20 years) are highly accurate because most people who will be alive then are already born. Long-term projections (50+ years) carry real uncertainty — UN publishes low/medium/high variants that diverge by ±1.5 billion at 2100. The biggest source of uncertainty is future fertility, especially in countries currently in fast demographic transition.

Q: Where does this data come from?

UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision (population.un.org/wpp), medium variant. Annual total population (mid-year July 1) for 195 countries, 1950–2100. Last updated 2026-06-05.

UN World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant) projects world population to grow from 8.23B today to 9.66B by 2050, peaking near 10.29B around 2084 before slow decline. Pick any country and any year below for its projected population.

Last updated 2026-06-05 · Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision (medium variant)

🔮 Population Projection Calculator

UN WPP 2024 medium variant · 1950 → 2100

Pick any country and a future year to see UN's medium-variant population projection. Add a comparison country, or your birth year for a personal angle ("when I turn 65, the world will be…").

Country

Projection year: 2050

2025205020752100

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UN projection

🌍 World · ➡️ Moderate growth

In 2050, World is projected to have 9.66B people — +1.43B (+17.4%) vs 8.23B today.

🚀 Peak coming

UN projects World's population to peak at 10.29B in 2084 — about 59 years from now — then decline.

today (2025)

8.23B

people

2050

9.66B

+17.4%

2100

10.18B

+23.7%

peak

2084

10.29B

When you turn 65 in 2055, World's population is projected to be 9.85B (+19.6% vs today).
When you turn 80 in 2070: 10.19B (+23.8% vs today).

ⓘ Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision, medium variant (population.un.org/wpp). UN also publishes low- and high-variant projections that diverge substantially after 2050 — the medium variant is the central published estimate.

📈 Population trajectory 1950 → 2100

🌍 World

World estimates projection today (2025) chosen year projected peak

Solid blue line: UN estimates 1950–2024 (history). Dashed line: medium-variant projection 2025–2100. Green marker is 2025 (today); purple marker tracks the slider year; red marker (if shown) is the projected peak.

Tip: this URL updates as you change inputs — copy and share. See world population when you were born → · How long will I live? →

World population trajectory through 2100

UN WPP 2024 medium variant

2025

8.23B

2050

9.66B

2100

10.18B

Peak (2084)

10.29B

The world's population is projected to grow from 8.23B today to 9.66B by 2050. UN's medium-variant projection has it peaking near 10.29B around 2084 before slowly declining — the first time in modern history the global total would begin to shrink.

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision — annual world population, medium variant. The medium variant is UN's central published projection; low and high variants diverge by ~1.5 billion by 2100.

When does each country peak?

UN WPP 2024 medium variant · 195 countries

Already past peak

Population is already declining (mostly E. Asia + Eastern Europe).

Peaks by 2050

Will peak within the next 25 years.

Peaks 2050–2099

Still growing this century but turning over before 2100.

Still growing in 2100

Continues growing through the full projection window (mostly Sub-Saharan Africa).

Source: Computed from UN WPP 2024 per-country annual population projections (medium variant). A country is counted as "past peak" if its highest annual value occurs in or before 2025.

Fastest-growing & fastest-shrinking by 2050

UN WPP 2024 · % change in population 2025 → 2050

The 10 fastest-growing countries are almost entirely in Sub-Saharan Africa — led by Democratic Republic of the Congo (93% gain by 2050). The fastest-shrinking list is dominated by East Asia and Eastern Europe — with Bosnia and Herzegovina projected to lose 22% by mid-century. Excludes microstates (population <1M today) so the ranking reflects countries with significant demographic weight.

Source: Computed from UN WPP 2024 medium-variant projections for 20+ countries.

How UN projections work

Low variant

Assumes fertility falls faster than central expectations. Used as a lower bound — by 2100 the low variant has world population around ~7.1 billion (actually below today's 8.2B).

Medium variant ← shown here

UN's central published projection. Combines mid-range fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. World population reaches ~9.7 billion by 2050 and peaks near 10.3 billion in the 2080s. This is what every headline cites.

High variant

Assumes fertility holds higher than central expectations. By 2100 the high variant has world population around ~14.4 billion — still growing, no peak in sight.

The three variants diverge by roughly ±1.5 billion people by 2100 from the medium central line — a wide range that reflects genuine uncertainty about future fertility, especially in countries where fertility is still high or rapidly declining.

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision — Methodology Report (population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2024_Methodology.pdf). Probabilistic projections (Bayesian hierarchical model) are also published; the deterministic variants above are the most-cited public figures.

All 195 countries projected to 2050 & 2100

Sorted by 2050 population · UN WPP 2024

#	Country	2025	2050	Δ 2025→2050	2100	Δ 2025→2100	Peak year
1	🇮🇳 India	1.46B	1.68B	+14.7%	1.51B	+2.8%	2061
2	🇨🇳 China	1.42B	1.26B	-11.0%	633.4M	-55.3%	2021
3	🇺🇸 United States	347.3M	380.8M	+9.7%	421.3M	+21.3%	2100
4	🇵🇰 Pakistan	255.2M	371.9M	+45.7%	511.0M	+100.2%	2100
5	🇳🇬 Nigeria	237.5M	359.2M	+51.2%	476.7M	+100.7%	2100
6	🇮🇩 Indonesia	285.7M	320.7M	+12.2%	295.5M	+3.4%	2058
7	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	135.5M	225.0M	+66.1%	367.3M	+171.1%	2100
8	🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo	112.8M	218.2M	+93.4%	430.7M	+281.7%	2100
9	🇧🇷 Brazil	212.8M	217.5M	+2.2%	163.4M	-23.2%	2042
10	🇧🇩 Bangladesh	175.7M	214.7M	+22.2%	208.6M	+18.7%	2071
11	🇪🇬 Egypt	118.4M	161.6M	+36.6%	201.9M	+70.6%	2100
12	🇲🇽 Mexico	131.9M	148.9M	+12.9%	130.2M	-1.3%	2058
13	🇷🇺 Russia	144.0M	136.1M	-5.5%	126.4M	-12.2%	1991
14	🇵🇭 Philippines	116.8M	134.4M	+15.1%	114.2M	-2.2%	2057
15	🇹🇿 Tanzania	70.5M	129.6M	+83.7%	262.8M	+272.6%	2100
16	🇻🇳 Vietnam	101.6M	110.0M	+8.3%	91.7M	-9.7%	2049
17	🇯🇵 Japan	123.1M	105.1M	-14.6%	76.8M	-37.6%	2009
18	🇮🇷 Iran	92.4M	101.9M	+10.2%	80.0M	-13.4%	2053
19	🇹🇷 Turkey	87.7M	91.3M	+4.1%	65.3M	-25.5%	2047
20	🇺🇬 Uganda	51.4M	85.4M	+66.3%	120.8M	+135.2%	2100
21	🇸🇩 Sudan	51.7M	85.2M	+64.9%	136.9M	+165.0%	2100
22	🇰🇪 Kenya	57.5M	83.6M	+45.3%	104.2M	+81.1%	2098
23	🇿🇦 South Africa	64.7M	79.2M	+22.3%	94.3M	+45.7%	2100
24	🇩🇪 Germany	84.1M	78.3M	-6.9%	70.9M	-15.7%	2024
25	🇦🇫 Afghanistan	43.8M	76.9M	+75.4%	130.2M	+197.0%	2100
26	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	69.6M	75.5M	+8.6%	74.3M	+6.8%	2072
27	🇦🇴 Angola	39.0M	74.3M	+90.3%	150.0M	+284.3%	2100
28	🇮🇶 Iraq	47.0M	71.9M	+53.0%	100.6M	+114.1%	2100
29	🇾🇪 Yemen	41.8M	71.0M	+69.9%	110.0M	+163.4%	2100
30	🇫🇷 France	66.7M	68.2M	+2.4%	68.5M	+2.8%	2095
31	🇹🇭 Thailand	71.6M	66.4M	-7.3%	45.6M	-36.4%	2022
32	🇲🇿 Mozambique	35.6M	63.5M	+78.3%	104.3M	+192.8%	2100
33	🇩🇿 Algeria	47.4M	59.6M	+25.6%	64.5M	+36.0%	2089
34	🇨🇴 Colombia	53.4M	59.4M	+11.2%	47.1M	-11.9%	2050
35	🇲🇲 Myanmar	54.9M	58.6M	+6.9%	49.7M	-9.5%	2048
36	🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire	32.7M	55.7M	+70.4%	104.0M	+218.1%	2100
37	🇲🇬 Madagascar	32.7M	53.2M	+62.4%	85.3M	+160.7%	2100
38	🇳🇪 Niger	27.9M	52.5M	+88.1%	90.8M	+225.3%	2100
39	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	37.1M	52.2M	+40.9%	74.3M	+100.7%	2100
40	🇮🇹 Italy	59.1M	51.9M	-12.3%	35.4M	-40.2%	2014
41	🇨🇲 Cameroon	29.9M	51.1M	+71.0%	88.9M	+197.5%	2100
42	🇬🇭 Ghana	35.1M	50.6M	+44.2%	67.5M	+92.6%	2100
43	🇦🇷 Argentina	45.9M	48.3M	+5.4%	38.3M	-16.6%	2050
44	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	34.6M	47.7M	+38.0%	71.0M	+105.4%	2100
45	🇲🇱 Mali	25.2M	46.2M	+83.2%	79.4M	+214.9%	2100
46	🇨🇦 Canada	40.1M	45.6M	+13.7%	53.6M	+33.6%	2100
47	🇰🇷 South Korea	51.7M	45.1M	-12.6%	21.8M	-57.7%	2020
48	🇪🇸 Spain	47.9M	44.9M	-6.2%	33.1M	-30.8%	2023
49	🇲🇾 Malaysia	36.0M	44.3M	+23.1%	44.0M	+22.4%	2072
50	🇲🇦 Morocco	38.4M	43.4M	+13.0%	37.9M	-1.4%	2058
51	🇵🇪 Peru	34.6M	40.6M	+17.4%	38.2M	+10.4%	2066
52	🇹🇩 Chad	21.0M	38.9M	+85.0%	69.5M	+231.1%	2100
53	🇿🇲 Zambia	21.9M	38.1M	+73.8%	64.5M	+194.2%	2100
54	🇸🇾 Syria	25.6M	37.8M	+47.5%	43.7M	+70.5%	2086
55	🇲🇼 Malawi	22.2M	37.4M	+68.2%	59.1M	+166.2%	2100
56	🇧🇫 Burkina Faso	24.1M	37.3M	+54.9%	49.9M	+107.1%	2100
57	🇸🇴 Somalia	19.7M	37.2M	+89.3%	67.4M	+242.7%	2100
58	🇳🇵 Nepal	29.6M	34.6M	+17.0%	31.8M	+7.5%	2066
59	🇵🇱 Poland	38.1M	32.8M	-14.0%	19.3M	-49.3%	2023
60	🇦🇺 Australia	27.0M	32.5M	+20.5%	43.1M	+59.9%	2100
61	🇺🇦 Ukraine	39.0M	32.0M	-17.9%	15.2M	-61.0%	1993
62	🇻🇪 Venezuela	28.5M	31.1M	+9.0%	28.3M	-0.8%	2057
63	🇸🇳 Senegal	18.9M	30.4M	+60.4%	47.0M	+148.3%	2100
64	🇰🇿 Kazakhstan	20.8M	26.5M	+27.3%	33.7M	+61.5%	2100
65	🇿🇼 Zimbabwe	17.0M	25.9M	+52.6%	37.2M	+119.3%	2100
66	🇰🇵 North Korea	26.6M	25.8M	-3.0%	19.5M	-26.6%	2032
67	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	23.2M	24.8M	+6.8%	21.2M	-8.5%	2051
68	🇬🇹 Guatemala	18.7M	24.7M	+32.0%	25.9M	+38.7%	2077
69	🇧🇯 Benin	14.8M	24.4M	+64.9%	39.6M	+167.2%	2100
70	🇧🇮 Burundi	14.4M	24.1M	+67.7%	37.9M	+163.2%	2100
71	🇬🇳 Guinea	15.1M	23.4M	+55.0%	32.0M	+112.0%	2100
72	🇷🇼 Rwanda	14.6M	22.7M	+55.9%	32.8M	+125.0%	2100
73	🇰🇭 Cambodia	17.8M	21.9M	+22.9%	22.7M	+27.4%	2078
74	🇪🇨 Ecuador	18.3M	21.3M	+16.7%	19.1M	+4.4%	2063
75	🇨🇱 Chile	19.9M	20.3M	+2.3%	13.4M	-32.4%	2041
76	🇳🇱 Netherlands	18.3M	19.0M	+3.3%	17.5M	-4.6%	2041
77	🇸🇸 South Sudan	12.2M	18.3M	+50.5%	23.8M	+95.6%	2100
78	🇯🇴 Jordan	11.5M	16.4M	+42.1%	21.3M	+85.1%	2100
79	🇧🇴 Bolivia	12.6M	16.1M	+28.0%	17.8M	+41.2%	2086
80	🇷🇴 Romania	18.9M	16.0M	-15.2%	10.8M	-43.1%	1991
81	🇹🇬 Togo	9.7M	15.6M	+60.3%	26.3M	+170.5%	2100
82	🇹🇯 Tajikistan	10.8M	15.6M	+44.4%	20.2M	+87.3%	2100
83	🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates	11.3M	15.4M	+35.4%	26.1M	+130.3%	2100
84	🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea	10.8M	14.9M	+38.5%	18.6M	+73.2%	2100
85	🇭🇳 Honduras	11.0M	14.8M	+34.9%	17.0M	+54.7%	2090
86	🇭🇹 Haiti	11.9M	14.7M	+23.6%	15.2M	+27.3%	2075
87	🇹🇳 Tunisia	12.3M	13.1M	+6.4%	10.7M	-13.7%	2051
88	🇮🇱 Israel	9.5M	13.1M	+37.6%	19.7M	+107.5%	2100
89	🇩🇴 Dominican Republic	11.5M	13.0M	+12.8%	11.7M	+1.3%	2060
90	🇸🇱 Sierra Leone	8.8M	12.9M	+46.8%	15.9M	+80.7%	2092
91	🇧🇪 Belgium	11.8M	11.9M	+1.0%	11.1M	-5.9%	2044
92	🇸🇪 Sweden	10.7M	11.3M	+6.1%	11.4M	+6.7%	2079
93	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	10.4M	11.2M	+8.0%	10.0M	-3.6%	2050
94	🇨🇬 Congo	6.5M	11.0M	+69.7%	20.0M	+208.9%	2100
95	🇨🇫 Central African Republic	5.5M	10.6M	+92.6%	18.8M	+240.6%	2100
96	🇨🇿 Czech Republic	10.6M	9.8M	-7.4%	8.2M	-22.4%	2023
97	🇵🇹 Portugal	10.4M	9.8M	-6.2%	8.8M	-15.9%	2010
98	🇱🇦 Laos	7.9M	9.8M	+23.9%	9.3M	+17.6%	2068
99	🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan	7.3M	9.6M	+32.2%	11.7M	+60.8%	2100
100	🇹🇲 Turkmenistan	7.6M	9.6M	+26.5%	9.9M	+30.6%	2078
101	🇲🇷 Mauritania	5.3M	9.4M	+77.2%	17.1M	+222.1%	2100
102	🇨🇺 Cuba	10.9M	9.4M	-14.2%	5.6M	-49.0%	2012
103	🇨🇭 Switzerland	9.0M	9.3M	+4.2%	9.1M	+1.8%	2051
104	🇱🇾 Libya	7.5M	9.3M	+24.2%	9.8M	+31.2%	2086
105	🇱🇷 Liberia	5.7M	8.9M	+55.5%	12.7M	+121.0%	2100
106	🇬🇷 Greece	9.9M	8.8M	-11.3%	6.3M	-36.9%	2010
107	🇳🇮 Nicaragua	7.0M	8.8M	+24.9%	8.6M	+22.9%	2071
108	🇭🇺 Hungary	9.6M	8.7M	-9.4%	7.5M	-22.5%	1980
109	🇦🇹 Austria	9.1M	8.7M	-4.3%	7.4M	-18.8%	2023
110	🇵🇾 Paraguay	7.0M	8.6M	+23.2%	9.0M	+29.0%	2077
111	🇵🇸 Palestine	5.6M	8.5M	+51.2%	11.5M	+105.4%	2100
112	🇴🇲 Oman	5.5M	7.8M	+42.4%	12.1M	+120.1%	2100
113	🇧🇾 Belarus	9.0M	7.5M	-17.2%	4.4M	-51.6%	1993
114	🇱🇧 Lebanon	5.8M	7.0M	+19.7%	7.2M	+23.0%	2080
115	🇸🇻 El Salvador	6.4M	6.7M	+4.7%	5.1M	-20.3%	2047
116	🇰🇼 Kuwait	5.0M	6.4M	+26.7%	9.6M	+91.0%	2100
117	🇩🇰 Denmark	6.0M	6.1M	+2.0%	5.9M	-2.3%	2041
118	🇸🇬 Singapore	5.9M	6.1M	+3.6%	4.2M	-29.1%	2040
119	🇮🇪 Ireland	5.3M	6.0M	+12.5%	5.3M	-0.4%	2053
120	🇳🇴 Norway	5.6M	5.9M	+4.9%	5.4M	-3.7%	2050
121	🇳🇿 New Zealand	5.3M	5.8M	+9.6%	5.8M	+10.7%	2077
122	🇪🇷 Eritrea	3.6M	5.7M	+57.9%	8.4M	+134.1%	2100
123	🇵🇦 Panama	4.6M	5.6M	+23.2%	5.9M	+29.2%	2080
124	🇷🇸 Serbia	6.7M	5.5M	-17.3%	3.7M	-44.7%	1986
125	🇧🇬 Bulgaria	6.7M	5.4M	-19.6%	3.5M	-47.4%	1988
126	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	5.2M	5.4M	+3.9%	3.8M	-26.7%	2044
127	🇫🇮 Finland	5.6M	5.4M	-4.8%	4.6M	-18.2%	2025
128	🇸🇰 Slovakia	5.5M	4.9M	-9.8%	3.4M	-37.4%	2023
129	🇳🇦 Namibia	3.1M	4.5M	+45.9%	5.9M	+90.7%	2100
130	🇲🇳 Mongolia	3.5M	4.5M	+28.0%	5.5M	+56.9%	2100
131	🇬🇲 Gambia	2.8M	4.3M	+52.4%	5.7M	+102.1%	2100
132	🇶🇦 Qatar	3.1M	4.2M	+33.6%	7.3M	+133.4%	2100
133	🇬🇦 Gabon	2.6M	4.1M	+57.5%	6.9M	+166.2%	2100
134	🇬🇪 Georgia	3.8M	3.7M	-3.8%	3.0M	-22.0%	1988
135	🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau	2.3M	3.4M	+52.8%	4.7M	+107.3%	2100
136	🇧🇼 Botswana	2.6M	3.4M	+34.2%	3.8M	+49.8%	2086
137	🇺🇾 Uruguay	3.4M	3.3M	-3.9%	2.2M	-33.6%	2020
138	🇭🇷 Croatia	3.8M	3.2M	-16.0%	2.1M	-44.4%	1990
139	🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea	1.9M	3.1M	+62.2%	5.0M	+158.2%	2100
140	🇱🇸 Lesotho	2.4M	3.0M	+26.7%	3.3M	+37.9%	2082
141	🇦🇲 Armenia	3.0M	2.5M	-15.5%	1.7M	-42.7%	1991
142	🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.1M	2.5M	-21.8%	1.4M	-56.5%	1991
143	🇯🇲 Jamaica	2.8M	2.5M	-13.5%	1.1M	-62.4%	2023
144	🇲🇩 Moldova	3.0M	2.4M	-21.5%	1.5M	-50.3%	1991
145	🇱🇹 Lithuania	2.8M	2.3M	-20.2%	1.2M	-57.3%	1991
146	🇦🇱 Albania	2.8M	2.2M	-19.2%	1.2M	-57.3%	1991
147	🇧🇭 Bahrain	1.6M	2.1M	+30.2%	3.1M	+88.1%	2100
148	🇸🇮 Slovenia	2.1M	2.0M	-6.4%	1.6M	-22.9%	2024
149	🇹🇱 Timor-Leste	1.4M	1.9M	+33.1%	2.0M	+39.0%	2074
150	🇩🇯 Djibouti	1.2M	1.5M	+29.3%	1.8M	+55.6%	2100
151	🇱🇻 Latvia	1.9M	1.5M	-18.3%	925K	-50.1%	1989
152	🇲🇰 North Macedonia	1.8M	1.5M	-16.6%	863K	-52.4%	2005
153	🇨🇾 Cyprus	1.4M	1.5M	+10.0%	1.3M	-7.0%	2052
154	🇸🇿 Eswatini	1.3M	1.5M	+19.8%	1.3M	+6.8%	2062
155	🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago	1.5M	1.4M	-7.3%	898K	-40.6%	2027
156	🇸🇧 Solomon Islands	839K	1.3M	+56.0%	1.8M	+120.4%	2100
157	🇰🇲 Comoros	883K	1.3M	+48.1%	1.9M	+116.4%	2100
158	🇪🇪 Estonia	1.3M	1.2M	-12.6%	826K	-38.5%	1990
159	🇲🇺 Mauritius	1.3M	1.1M	-12.7%	582K	-54.1%	2014
160	🇫🇯 Fiji	933K	1.0M	+7.2%	879K	-5.8%	2053
161	🇬🇾 Guyana	836K	941K	+12.6%	889K	+6.3%	2064
162	🇧🇹 Bhutan	797K	882K	+10.7%	690K	-13.4%	2052
163	🇱🇺 Luxembourg	680K	791K	+16.3%	748K	+10.0%	2059
164	🇸🇷 Suriname	640K	734K	+14.7%	709K	+10.8%	2068
165	🇲🇻 Maldives	530K	590K	+11.3%	475K	-10.4%	2056
166	🇨🇻 Cabo Verde	527K	566K	+7.4%	417K	-20.9%	2048
167	🇲🇹 Malta	545K	536K	-1.7%	360K	-33.9%	2032
168	🇻🇺 Vanuatu	335K	534K	+59.4%	875K	+161.2%	2100
169	🇲🇪 Montenegro	633K	533K	-15.8%	326K	-48.5%	2024
170	🇧🇳 Brunei	466K	520K	+11.6%	465K	-0.2%	2052
171	🇧🇿 Belize	423K	517K	+22.2%	447K	+5.7%	2060
172	🇮🇸 Iceland	398K	433K	+8.8%	363K	-8.8%	2046
173	🇧🇸 Bahamas	403K	424K	+5.2%	385K	-4.5%	2046
174	🇸🇹 Sao Tome and Principe	240K	365K	+52.1%	534K	+122.5%	2100
175	🇼🇸 Samoa	219K	273K	+24.7%	384K	+75.3%	2100
176	🇧🇧 Barbados	283K	264K	-6.7%	195K	-31.1%	2025
177	🇰🇮 Kiribati	136K	183K	+34.6%	223K	+64.0%	2096
178	🇱🇨 Saint Lucia	180K	172K	-4.4%	108K	-40.0%	2027
179	🇸🇨 Seychelles	133K	142K	+6.8%	116K	-12.8%	2040
180	🇫🇲 Micronesia	114K	126K	+10.5%	128K	+12.3%	2068
181	🇬🇩 Grenada	117K	113K	-3.4%	74K	-36.8%	2021
182	🇹🇴 Tonga	104K	105K	+1.0%	118K	+13.5%	2093
183	🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda	94K	95K	+1.1%	68K	-27.7%	2033
184	🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	100K	89K	-11.0%	64K	-36.0%	2000
185	🇦🇩 Andorra	83K	82K	-1.2%	47K	-43.4%	2030
186	🇩🇲 Dominica	66K	63K	-4.5%	49K	-25.8%	1978
187	🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis	47K	44K	-6.4%	30K	-36.2%	1960
188	🇱🇮 Liechtenstein	40K	43K	+7.5%	44K	+10.0%	2091
189	🇲🇨 Monaco	38K	37K	-2.6%	47K	+23.7%	2097
190	🇸🇲 San Marino	34K	34K	+0.0%	31K	-8.8%	2018
191	🇲🇭 Marshall Islands	36K	25K	-30.6%	24K	-33.3%	2003
192	🇳🇷 Nauru	12K	16K	+33.3%	21K	+75.0%	2096
193	🇵🇼 Palau	18K	16K	-11.1%	11K	-38.9%	2002
194	🇹🇻 Tuvalu	9K	10K	+11.1%	12K	+33.3%	2077
195	🇻🇦 Vatican City	1K	1K	+0.0%	1K	+0.0%	1950

Population figures are mid-year (July 1) estimates. Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision, medium variant. "Peak year" is the year in which UN projects that country's population will reach its maximum within the 1950–2100 window.

Frequently Asked Questions

What will the world population be in 2050?

UN's medium variant: ~9.66B, up from 8.23B today. Almost all of the growth comes from Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia and most of Europe are already shrinking.

What will the world population be in 2100?

~10.18B (medium variant). The low variant gives ~7.1B, high variant ~14.4B. Medium peaks near 10.29B around 2084 before slow decline.

When will the world population peak?

UN medium variant has world population peaking near 10.29B around 2084. This would be the first sustained decline in modern human history.

Which countries are growing fastest?

Mostly Sub-Saharan Africa. Niger, DRC, Chad, Somalia, Tanzania and others are projected to roughly double in size by 2050. Pakistan, Nigeria, and Egypt are the demographic giants in this group.

Which countries are shrinking fastest?

East Asia (China, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan) and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania) dominate. Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Cuba are notable entrants from Western Europe and Latin America.

How accurate are UN population projections?

Short-term (10-20 years): very accurate, since most future people are already born. Long-term (50+ years): real uncertainty — low/medium/high variants diverge by ±1.5B at 2100. Biggest unknown: future fertility in countries still in transition.

What's the difference between low/medium/high variants?

They use different fertility assumptions. The medium variant is UN's central published projection; it gets cited in 99% of news. Low/high are bounds, not strict confidence intervals — they assume fertility falls faster or stays higher than the central path.

Where does this data come from?

UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision (population.un.org/wpp), extracted from the official Demographic Indicators dataset, medium variant. Annual total population (mid-year July 1) for 195 countries, 1950–2100. Last updated 2026-06-05.

Related demographic tools & calculators

Sources & Methodology

Primary source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision — annual mid-year (Jul 1) total population for 195 countries, 1950–2100, medium variant. Extracted from the official Demographic Indicators dataset (column index: 12, in thousands).
Variants: UN publishes low, medium, and high variants plus a probabilistic Bayesian projection. The medium variant is the central published figure and is shown here.
Methodology: UN WPP 2024 Methodology Report — fertility, mortality and migration assumptions; uncertainty intervals.
Coverage: 195 countries + world aggregate. Data file shipped: 229 KB raw per render, gzipped far smaller. All charts and tables on this page are inline SVG generated server-side from primary sources — no third-party tracking or external chart libraries.
Last updated 2026-06-05.