Stage 3 Demographic Transition: Late Expanding Phase
Understanding the late expanding phase through population pyramids of Brazil, Iran, Mexico, and Turkey
What is Stage 3 Demographic Transition?
Stage 3 of demographic transition, known as the Late Expanding phase, represents a critical turning point in a country's population dynamics. During this stage, birth rates begin to decline significantly while death rates continue to fall or stabilize at low levels. This creates a distinctive population structure that resembles a barrel or cylinder more than the classic pyramid shape.
Stage 3 Key Characteristics:
- Declining birth rates (15-25 per 1,000)
- Low death rates (8-15 per 1,000)
- Slowing population growth (1-2% annually)
- Rectangular population pyramid - wider middle, narrower base
- Urbanization and education drive fertility decline
- Beginning of population aging
Stage 3 Countries: Population Pyramid Examples
Let's examine four countries currently in Stage 3 of demographic transition, each showing the characteristic rectangular or barrel-shaped population structure:
Brazil (Stage 3)
Population: 216 million
Birth Rate: 14.1 per 1,000
Death Rate: 6.7 per 1,000
Growth Rate: 0.7% annually
Iran (Stage 3)
Population: 86 million
Birth Rate: 16.2 per 1,000
Death Rate: 5.3 per 1,000
Growth Rate: 1.1% annually
Mexico (Stage 3)
Population: 131 million
Birth Rate: 17.6 per 1,000
Death Rate: 5.4 per 1,000
Growth Rate: 1.2% annually
Turkey (Stage 3)
Population: 85 million
Birth Rate: 15.4 per 1,000
Death Rate: 6.1 per 1,000
Growth Rate: 0.9% annually
Stage 3 vs Other Demographic Transition Stages
To understand Stage 3's unique characteristics, let's compare it with countries in other demographic stages:
Stage 3 vs Stage 1: From Pyramid to Rectangle
Brazil (Stage 3) - Rectangular Shape
Niger (Stage 1) - Classic Pyramid
Key Difference: Brazil's rectangular shape shows declining fertility and aging population, while Niger's pyramid shows continued high birth rates and young population structure.
Stage 3 vs Stage 2: Fertility Decline Begins
Iran (Stage 3) - Base Narrowing
Kenya (Stage 2) - Broad Base
Key Difference: Iran shows clear narrowing at the base (fewer young children), while Kenya maintains the broad base typical of Stage 2's population explosion.
Stage 3 vs Stage 4: Approaching Stability
Mexico (Stage 3) - Still Growing
Germany (Stage 4) - Stable Population
Key Difference: Mexico still shows population momentum with broader younger cohorts, while Germany has achieved near-replacement level fertility with a more uniform age distribution.
Stage 3 vs Stage 5: Population Aging Trajectory
Turkey (Stage 3) - Beginning to Age
Japan (Stage 5) - Advanced Aging
Key Difference: Turkey shows early signs of population aging but maintains replacement-level fertility, while Japan displays extreme population aging with an inverted pyramid structure.
What Drives Stage 3 Demographic Transition?
Economic Factors
- • Rising incomes and living standards
- • Urbanization and industrialization
- • Increased cost of raising children
- • Women's participation in workforce
- • Economic incentives for smaller families
Social & Cultural Changes
- • Improved education, especially for women
- • Access to family planning services
- • Changing family values and structures
- • Delayed marriage and childbearing
- • Quality vs quantity of children preference
Policy Challenges in Stage 3 Countries
Key Policy Areas
Education Planning: Managing the demographic dividend as large youth cohorts enter the workforce
Healthcare Systems: Preparing for gradual population aging while maintaining maternal and child health services
Economic Development: Leveraging the working-age population bulge for economic growth
Urban Planning: Managing continued urbanization and internal migration patterns
Social Security: Beginning to plan for future aging populations and pension systems
Transition Timeline: Moving Toward Stage 4
Stage 3 countries are typically 10-30 years away from achieving Stage 4 stability. The transition depends on:
- Continued economic development and rising living standards
- Educational advancement, particularly female education completion rates
- Healthcare access and family planning availability
- Cultural adaptation to smaller family norms
- Government policies supporting the demographic transition
Stage 3 Success Indicators
Countries successfully progressing through Stage 3 show declining total fertility rates (approaching 2.1), stable institutions, growing middle class, and effective governance that can manage both the opportunities and challenges of demographic change.